Insights
Thinking on risk, prediction markets, and the future of business protection.
The Gap Isn't Coverage. It's Speed.
Even the best insurance products fail when the crisis moves faster than the claims process.
April 6, 2026
Film and TV Production Insurance Has a Blind Spot. Here’s What It Doesn’t Cover.
Production insurance covers cast illness, equipment damage, and weather. It doesn’t cover the thing that actually kills shows.
April 3, 2026
From Grain Gambling to Global Infrastructure: How Commodity Futures Became Legitimate — and What Prediction Markets Can Learn
In 1892, Congress tried to ban futures trading. Today it’s the backbone of global finance.
March 31, 2026
The Limits of Traditional Insurance — and Why Parametric Insurance Still Isn’t Enough
Insurance is good at what it does. The problem is everything it doesn’t do.
March 24, 2026
Political Campaign Vendors Have No Safety Net. That’s a Solvable Problem.
Half the campaigns in contested races lose. The vendors who worked them absorb the hit.
March 13, 2026
One Convention Cancellation Away: The Hidden Cash Flow Risk in Hotel Group Bookings
You blocked the inventory. You declined competing business. Then the convention cancelled.
March 10, 2026
When the Headliner Gets Arrested: The Concert Promoter’s Unhedgeable Nightmare
One night. One headliner. One chance. And no financial protection if it falls apart.
March 3, 2026
Reality TV’s Unhedgeable Risk: What the Bachelorette Cancellation Cost ABC
A $60 million loss in 90 minutes — and no insurance policy in the world would have covered it.
February 24, 2026
The Tariff Refund Trap: Why Importers Are Selling Their Claims for 50 Cents on the Dollar
The Supreme Court said you’re owed the money. Customs says wait. Hedge funds say they’ll take half.
February 19, 2026
How Outdoor Festival Producers Can Protect Revenue Against Grey-Zone Weather
Hurricanes are covered. A muddy Saturday that costs you 40% of your gate revenue is not.
February 10, 2026
Prediction Markets Are the Most Accurate Forecasting Tool on Earth. Businesses Haven’t Figured That Out Yet.
The Fed says prediction markets outperform traditional forecasting. What that means for commercial risk.
February 6, 2026
The $1 Trillion Insurance Gap: Why Modern Business Risk Has Outgrown the Policy
Traditional insurance was built for fire and flood. Modern business risk looks nothing like that.
February 3, 2026